Ethnic Discontent in Western China: Can China's Provincial Policy Contain Instability

摘要

This paper examines the People's Republic of China's provincial policy and its ability to contain instability in the western autonomous regions of Xinjiang and Tibet. While the PRC appears monolithic, the western provinces have a unique context that sets them apart from greater China. First, these provinces do not have a continuous history of peaceful rule by Chinese regimes. Both regions are considered potentially unstable with subversive elements desiring greater autonomy or even independence. Second, the autonomous regions contain majority 'minority' ethnic populations that are not Han Chinese. In Xinjiang, ethnic minorities (predominantly Uyghur) account for 59.4% of the population versus 40.6% Han Chinese. Tension between ethnic minorities and Han Chinese are at the root of western provincial instability. Third, the western provinces' trade access, plentiful natural resources, and open lands contrast with greater China. They provide opportunities for immigration and economic development, which are critical to China's strategic domestic policy. Given these unique factors, the PRC regime has shaped a unique approach toward the western provinces. PRC policy in the western provinces emphasizes maintaining control and stability as the primary objective. To do this, the PRC focuses on economic expansion and control of subversive influences. In parallel with these efforts, the PRC has attempted to nurture long-term stability through a conflicted policy of supporting minority diversity while forcing cultural assimilation. Despite a half century of adjustments in the diversity versus assimilation policy, the effect has been enduring minority discontent from the mid-1950s to the present. This paper examines the effectiveness of the PRC policy to suppress regional instability in Xinjiang and Tibet from 1949 to the present. Across case studies, three variables (ethnic discontent, economic expansion, and control measures) have been found to explain the level instability.