Mathematical Approach to the Evaluation and Planning of Influence Operations

摘要

According to U.S. Air Force Concept of Operations for Information Operations, Influence Operations 'employ capabilities to affect behaviors, protect operations, communicate commander's intent, and project accurate information to achieve desired effects across the targeting domain. These effects should result in differing behavior or a change in the adversary decision cycle, which aligns with the commander's objectives.' Specific events involved in Influence Operations are Psychological Operations (PSYOP), military deception, counterintelligence, and public affairs functions aimed at foreign populations. This report describes research that aims to create a capability to quantitatively predict the results of influence operations. This research intends to meld mathematical methods from operations research, market research, psychology, sociology and economics to produce useful tools for the quantitative assessment of influence operations. The work is substantially interdisciplinary since it entails a cooperative endeavor of mathematically oriented scientists with specialists from market research, psychology, sociology, and economics. While the focus is on building useful mathematical structures, the intention is to apply these structures to actual combat data (after action reports) in the setting of influence operations.