U.S. Agricultural Trade: Trends, Composition, Direction, and Policy

摘要

U.S. agricultural exports for FY2008 are forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to reach a record $83.5 billion, while agricultural imports are expected to reach $75 billion, also a record level. The agricultural trade surplus is projected to be $8.5 billion. Exports of bulk commodities (e.g., soybeans, wheat, and feed grains) remain significant, but exports of high-value products (HVPs), such as fruits, and vegetables, and meats are increasing. HVPs accounted for almost 63% of total U.S. agricultural exports in FY2006. Leading markets for U.S. agricultural exports are Canada, Mexico, Japan, the European Union, China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The United States dominates world markets for corn, wheat, and cotton. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the world's leading supplier of soybeans and is the world s leading supplier of beef and poultry to world markets. The U.S. share of world beef exports has declined since the discovery of a cow infected with mad cow disease in the United States in 2003. The United States, European Union, Australia, and New Zealand are dominant suppliers of dairy products in global agricultural trade. Most U.S. agricultural imports are high-value products. For some imports (grains, meats, horticultural products), similar products are produced in the United States; production of other categories of imports (bananas, coffee, cocoa) is very limited. The biggest import suppliers are the European Union, Canada, and Mexico, which together provide 57% of total U.S. agricultural imports. Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Indonesia, and Colombia are also major suppliers of agricultural imports to the United States. Among the fastest-growing markets for U.S. agricultural exports are Canada and Mexico, both partners with the United States in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). U.S. agricultural exports to China, recently a member of the World Trade Organization, have grown at an annual rate of 16% since 1992.