More Freedom, Less Terror. Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World; Monograph

摘要

In 2003, President Bush lamented, 'Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe,' transforming democracy promotion into a national security priority. According to this logic, America must promote democracy as an antidote to terrorism; democracy promotion could no longer be relegated to obscure bureaus of the U.S. government. After 9/11 revealed the threats posed by extremism emanating from the Middle East, the Bush administration no longer considered democracy in the Arab world a luxury. To be sure, the destabilizing events that have unfolded in Iraq and the broader region since 2003 have led to a backlash against democracy promotion in the Middle East, and to some extent, against the United States as well. Moreover, democracy promotion never secured a very high level of support or resources from the U.S. administration even at the height of its popularity. But given the prominent role of democracy promotion in the broader U.S. strategy for the Middle East, it is curious that so little research has empirically explored the relationship between democracy and terrorism. This study is an attempt to fill this gap, examining six Arab cases in depth. Rather than ask whether democracy can stop terrorism, the authors explore how liberalization processes can influence calculations regarding political violence in various domestic contexts (recognizing that there are no democracies, and arguably no genuine democratization processes, in the Arab world today). Has the introduction of political reforms into the Arab Middle East alleviated terrorism and violent extremism. If so, in what ways and under what conditions. If not, why. Can the reversal of reforms and a return to repressive policies increase the risk of terrorism over time. In short, what are the effects of liberalization processes on the resort to political violence in this critical area of the world.