Israel's Survival Instincts and the Dangers of Nuclear Weapons in Iranian Hands

摘要

As Israelis grapple with policy options for dealing with the emerging Iranian threat, they do not like what they see. They find themselves 'between a rock and a hard place,' knowing that there is a large gap between Israel's declarative policy that it will not allow hostile states in the region to acquire nuclear weapons and their military capabilities, which have substantial shortcomings that could impact the ability to hold at risk Iran's large and widely dispersed nuclear infrastructure, all of which is located a long reach from Israel. Meanwhile, in debates and discussions in Washington on the creeping crisis over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons aspirations, one periodically hears mention of Tel Aviv's worries about Tehran. But Israel's interests and threat perceptions are mentioned merely in passing and generally receive no sustained or deep analysis. In contrast, the threat posed by an Iran armed with nuclear weapons receives heavy coverage in Israeli media and fills the in-boxes of Israeli security officials and diplomats already heavily burdened by terrorism and the conflict with the Palestinians. Clearly, a look at the Israeli dimension of the Iran nuclear crisis is in order. How do the Israelis view Iran. What dangers would Iranian nuclear weapons pose to the state of Israel. What are the Israelis doing today. What could they do tomorrow. And what would be the implications and consequences of Israeli security actions for American national security vis-a-vis Iran and the Gulf.