Assessing Risk Levels of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation of Models and Simulations

摘要

This article presents a new methodology for assessing the risks associated with the level of verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) of a given model and/or simulation when used in support of major decisions. As stated by Department of Defense (DoD) Instruction 5000.61 (DOD, 2003), 'It is DoD policy that: models and simulations (M&S) used to support major DoD decision-making organizations and processes shall be accredited for that specific purpose by the DoD component M&S application sponsor.' Instruction 5000.61 applies to 'All models and simulations developed, used, or managed by the DoD components after the effective date of this instruction.' The requirements cited above have set the need for VV&A of M&S at the forefront of concerns for DoD and DoD-Component acquisition personnel. When an acquisition program involves a large number of models, cost associated with VV&A can become enormous. There is a need therefore to have a systematic approach for assessing and prioritizing the risks associated with the level to which individual models have been verified, validated, and accredited. To provide decision-makers with a judicious way for determining the risks associated with using a given M&S, and the extent to which VV&A work will be needed to meet these requirements, a methodology is developed for assessing the risks associated with the level of VV&A of a given M&S when used to support decision-making. This approach parallels the formal DoD Risk Assessment procedure, but with application to the use of M&S, as it relates to VV&A.