Recreating the 1950's Chesapeake Bay: Use of a Network Model to Guide the Application of a Eutrophication Model

摘要

This report is the last of a series that documents research relating the coupling of spatially and temporally detailed eutrophication models with ecosystem models that lack spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model, CE-QUAL-ICM (ICM) is coupled to the Ecopath with Ecosim (EWE) fisheries model. This research examines the feasibility of restoring the ecosystem that existed in the 1950s mid Bay based on current knowledge of the driving forces of overabundance of nutrients and decreased water clarity. Making adjustments to loads and coefficients controlling eutrophication through a numerical water quality model is one way to study this problem. Five simulations using the 2002 CBEM were conducted with analyses only discussed for the mid Bay. All model runs were simulated for the same time period, 1985 through 1994, but only analyzed for the 1985 through 1987 period. ICM produced reasonable results for conditions that could have occurred in the 1950s. Although observed data were scarce from the 1950s or 1960's to make comparisons, the results follow behavior described in literature by other researchers. These runs demonstrate the ability of ICM to reasonably predict past or future conditions of a system.