Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) Effects Forecasting for Course of Action (COA) Evaluation

摘要

Comprehensive effects-based planning requires that diplomatic, information, military, and economic (DIME) options be considered, along with their potential impacts on the political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information (PMESII) environment. Given that the cause- effect relationships among these are not well understood, modeling these relationships and using them to forecast plausible outcomes is a challenging technical problem. This effort developed a Probative Rapid Interactive Modeling Environment (PRIME) software tool for effects forecasting to support analysts and strategy planners in allowing them to directly explore the full range of consequences associated with candidate courses of action (COAs). The full chain of reasoning, from actions taken, to intended and unintended effects, is explained through narratives, grounded in explanations of modeled cause-effect relationships. The models themselves are directly accessible and modifiable by those engaged in the strategy planning.