Thinning Arctic Ice Cap as Simulated by the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS): 2000-2008

摘要

Even though the Arctic is one of the most hostile operational environments in the world, numerous vessels transit the Arctic regularly in summer when coastal melting opens the shortest connection between much of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Free drifting icebergs, 24-hour seasonal darkness, sub-zero temperatures, and a lack of dependable logistical support can make Arctic operations extremely challenging for ships, aircraft, and submarines. Accurate forecasts of changing ice conditions can be applied to anticipate changing conditions and mitigate operational challenges. Applications of the second- and third-generation Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) are used to model and diagnose continuing thinning of Arctic ice and larger summertime ice-free areas. A significant decrease in overall ice cover has been observed in relation to the anticipated median ice extent. In 2007, the summer minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was 40% below the minimum sea ice extents of the 1980s and more than 20% below the previous record minimum of 2005. Forecasts from the secondgeneration ice prediction system, PIPS 2.0, agree well with documented observations concerning the current diminishing ice cap (Fig. 1).