Sea-level Rise Science and Decision Making in an Uncertain Future

摘要

Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to sea- level rise (SLR) requires integrating a variety of physical, biological, and social factors. These include landscape habitat, and resource changes, as well as the ability of society and its institutions to adapt. The range of physical and biological responses associated with SLR is poorly understood at some of the critical time and space scales required for decision making. Although the general nature of the coastal changes that can occur in response to SLR is widely recognized, predicting what changes may occur in response to a specific rise in sea level at a particular point in time is difficult. Similarly, the cumulative impacts of physical and biological change on infrastructure natural resources, and the quantity and quality of coastal habitats are not well understood. Limitations in the ability to quantitatively predict outcomes at local, regional, and national scales affect whether, when, and how some decisions will be made. Thus, decision makers require tools to understand and anticipate the magnitude and likelihood of future SLR impacts, as well as evaluate the consequences of different actions (or inaction). Engaging both scientists and decision makers in the development of decision tools informs science activities that will result in more useful predictions and products for management.