Scanning the Horizon: Coast Guard Strategy in a Hot, Flat, Crowded World

摘要

Current trends portend a future with significant new challenges and opportunities for the U.S. Coast Guard. This paper examines some of the likely global future trends, discusses their impacts on the maritime domain, and analyzes the Coast Guard's broad strategic plans to determine whether the service is ready for the changes it may face. Global warming, global trade, population growth, and the continuing threat from terrorism will affect many mission areas. After reviewing the Coast Guard's traditional roles and missions, the paper discusses the maritime consequences of these trends, including a warmer Arctic climate with reduced ice coverage, depleted fisheries, increases in the volume of maritime shipping, threats to maritime homeland security, and increased offshore drilling for energy resources. Finally, the paper evaluates the Coast Guard's strategic guidance to determine how well it will prepare it for changes in the operating environment, and provides recommendations to improve the Coast Guard's strategic posture.