Sailing into Troubled Waters: Predicting Piracy Off Africa

摘要

This paper addresses several critical issues related to African piracy including: (1) risk factors that promote piracy, (2) future hotspots for piratical behavior, and (3) the intent of pirates once cargo, vessel and crew are commandeered. Findings suggest that while the Northern and Southern African coasts do not appear to be a high risk area for future piracy, Eastern Africa remains a high threat area primarily due to Somalia. On the opposite coast, Western Africa will likely continue to experience some degree of piracy primarily in Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo, but at a manageable level consistent with current trends. The Northwestern region of the continent however, appears to pose the highest risk for piracy, including the countries of Cote d Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria. Recommendations regarding the strategic role for the U.S. Navy in helping curtail piracy off the continent of Africa are offered.