A PRELIMINARY TOTAL COST MODEL FOR COMPARING RANGE SAFETY POLICIES VMTH AN APPLICATION TO THE KWAJALEIN AREA

摘要

This report begins with the assumption that the total national cost of a range safety policy is a useful measure for comparing different safety policies. Using the situation of ICBM launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base into the Kwajalein Atoll, there is developed a model for deter-mining expected numbers and costs of casualties, expected number and costs of good missiles destroyed, and other factors entering into an over-all cost summation.nWith the model it is possible to determine the influence on total cost (or on its components) of changes in parameters of safety policies. The parameter changes possible include (1) altering the target point, (2) moving the impact limit lines, and (3) modifying or eliminating tie range safety system (GERSIS).