Development and Experimental Application of International Affairs Indicators. Volume B. Supportive Research.

摘要

The early warning intelligence function has traditionally involved the exclusive use of quantitative military analysis and qualitative political analysis as means to assess environmental threats. The present study explores the notion that quantitative political analysis is a useful and needed parallel component to military and qualitative political analyses. The central problem of this experiment is to demonstrate the value of quantitative political analysis by applying quantitative political indicators to the task of early warning. The application of quantitative political indicators to two international crises demonstrates that the technology does improve the analyst's ability to sense changes in political trends. This improved ability results, in spite of the fact that the data base used is restricted to international events. The exact intent of a nation to engage in hostile activities often can be inferred only from political changes manifest in the international political arena. In such cases, quantitative political indicators provide a collection of 'tip-off' signals that help the analyst monitor these intents. Quantitative political indicators may be used to compare and display many factors simultaneously. Quantitative indicators, however, only assist the estimator indirectly. Research is in progress to improve the uses of quantitative indicators to this end. (Author)