Recent Research Insights into Local Migration Flows.

摘要

Uncertainty about migration at the local level is such that planning agencies have little to guide them in estimating changes that have occurred since the 1970 census enumeration. This paper reports the results of research to develop a data-based model for estimating and projecting gross (directional) local migration. The study has been based on a unique national body of longitudinal data, the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample, covering the period 1959-1965. Two general questions have guided the analysis. First, what economic and demographic factors account for the variations over time in cities' gross inflow and outflow rates. Second, how can these variations be monitored reliably in view of widely varying inflow and outflow levels, but their short-term responsiveness to economic conditions.