Feasibility of a World Food Reserve.

摘要

The problem of extreme fluctuations in food prices due to short-falls in production was studied. The analysis included a definition of this problem as opposed to the long-range food shortage problem, and determination of the size reserve needed to even out shortfalls. The economic feasibility of maintaining this size reserve was evaluated, as well as the question of ownership of stocks and means of reducing the amount of stocks needed. The political feasibility of such a reserve was evaluated from a subjective approach. It was determined that a reserve of 81.9 million metric tons of total grain would be needed to cover 95 percent of probable short-falls. The annual costs for this size reserve would be $880 million, based on the current grain prices and storage costs, if resale prices are allowed to increase by the rate of inflation. If costs are shared, based on the volume of world trade, and divided equally between exporters and importers; the United States would be about one-third of the total. This would be a small fraction of the $4-5 billion spent annually on earlier commodity stabilization programs. (Author)