Empirical Study of the Impact of a Production Rate Change on the Direct Labor Requirements for an Airframe Manufacturing Program.

摘要

This study examined the impact on direct labor requirements resulting from externally caused production rate changes in the T-38/F-5 airframe production program. The basis for the study was the research conducted at the University of Oregon by Lieutenant Colonel Larry L. Smith in 1975-76. He used a modification to the standard learning curve model and devised a procedure to determine the forecasting ability of the model using data from the F-4, F-102, and KC-135 programs. Smith found that production rate, as expressed in his modified model, showed a significant inverse relationship to direct labor requirements. Additionally, his model provided substantially improved labor requirment forecasts as compared to corresponding forecasts provided by the standard learning curve model. In this study, which replicated Smith's research using T-38/F-5 data, Smith's findings and conclusions were validated. Based on the consistency of findings, Smith's model is recommended for use in forecasting direct labor requirements in active airframe production program. (Author)