Quantitative Assessment of Third World Sea Denial Capabilities.

摘要

This thesis develops a quantitative technique to assist policy makers faced with difficult arms transfer questions. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, augmented by the Constant Sum Method, offers greater potential for measuring military capabilities than current methods. An examination of Third World naval capabilities proves the combined techniques workable and capable of incorporating expert judgments into a meaningful policy-making tool. The thesis demonstrates that current techniques understate the potential threat from Third World navies. Naval capabilities are found to be concentrated in areas vital to Western interests. The analysis emphasizes the importance of technology and human/societal factors in the development of these capabilities. The major conclusion is that increased study into implications of rapidly expanding Third World naval capabilities is required due to the direct potential threat to Western interests. (Author)