Advanced Technology Manpower Forecasting. Naval Requirements for Skilled Manpower and the Introduction of New Technology.

摘要

This study investigates the feasibility and usefulness of forecasting techniques applied to the manpower requirements and research and development planning and programming cycles. A major thrust of the effort is directed towards creating data bases in computer and nuclear manpower requirements from 1950 to the present, 3rd generation computer, nuclear, laser, and electro-optics technologies, and 24 weapon systems (aircraft, ships, and bases) from 1946 to the present. Three methodologies are used to forecast manpower requirements for emerging technologies. Growth curves and historical analogies are used to forecast manpower requirements based on similarities between existing and emerging technologies which are useful in validating more complex forecasting techniques. A system disaggregation technique is used to analogize manpower requirements on a component by component basis compared between an existing reference system and a perceived application of a new technology. A linear program allocates manpower over a 30-year period to forecast changes in the number of skills required by the addition or deletion of technology represented in the 24 weapon system types. (Author)