The Early Warning and Monitoring System: A Progress Report.

摘要

This technical report documents and summarizes the progress made toward the development of a crisis early warning and monitoring system. Chapter 1 reviews the crisis warning problem and proposed solution. Chapter 2 summarizes the contract tasking and project accomplishments. The components of the early warning system and their interrelationships are detailed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 reports on progress in developing new indicators and software capabilities. Chapter 5 documents developments made in transferring and demonstrating the prototype system. The current status of the blend between empirical and decision analytic warning methodologies is described in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 outlines future research developments to be designed, tested, and integrated. The Early Warning and Monitoring system is comprised of several main components including quantitative indicators, general scans, a forecasting methodology, and an interactive computer base. The quantitative indicators include international political indicators of activity, tension, and uncertainty. The monthly forecasts are based on extensive retrospective tests of past crisis behavior. Testing has shown that the computer-based system is capable of substantially improving the defense community's ability to forecast specific international crises.