Managing the U.S. Economy in a Post-Attack Environment. A System Dynamics Model of Viability

摘要

The primary objective of this study is to determine if post-attack viability (or collapse) is automatic for a given system, or if management actions can influence the outcome. In investigating this problem, the approach focuses on exploring the structure of a post-attack system for instabilities, identifying the processes that could lead to collapse, and then evaluating if and how alternative post-attack management policies can mitigate the effects of those instabilities. At the conceptual level, the approach characterized a system's viability in terms of an inventories 'race.' Since the immediate post-attack period would be marked by a reliance on stockpiles and inventories to sustain the surviving population, the critical question was whether inventories would be depleted before the economy could replenish supplies by reorganizing initial production facilities. Additionally, the study attempted to determine how various types of systemic instabilities can affect this inventories race and how management actions can effectively overcome any debilitating effects. A system dynamics model is constructed of a post-attack economy to study the management problems affecting these support systems in the immediate post-attack period.