Application of an Interactive One-Dimensional Cloud Model to Warm Season Afternoon Convection

摘要

A one-dimensional cloud model was used interactively to predict convective cloud tops. The model forecasts were verified against tops determined from enhanced infrared satellite images and radar reports. The cloud model was run on a minicomputer using observed environmental soundings and allowing sounding modification by the forecaster. The main concern of the experimentation was spring and summer afternoon convective activity. Results showed that the cloud model correctly forecast the occurrence or nonoccurrence of convection in 78 of 99 cases studied. In frontal situations, interaction with soundings appeared to improve cloud top forecasts; interaction appeared to be most critical for the boundary layer. Interactive forecasts of tops of prevailing convection had a root-mean-square error of 2.0 km and were within 1.5 km of the observed tops in 69% of the cases studied; those for the more isolated highest convective tops had a root-mean-square error of 1.6 km and were within 1.5 km of the observed tops in 70% of the cases. (Author)