Structuring Decisions. The Role of Structuring Heuristics

摘要

This paper discusses how heuristics can be incorporated in decision aids that are used for structuring decision problems. First, decision theory in terms of linked subsystems is described; this permits identification of the sites where it is necessary to employ heuristic rather than normative, algorithmic procedures. These sites lie on the interface between decision maker's semantic memory, because no adequate formal specification of the structure of semantic memory exists as yet, and consequently no normative procedures for accessing information from semantic memory can be specified. Next, production systems are used to describe heuristic devices handling transactions across the interface between the decision theoretic system and the decision maker's semantic memory; it is suggested that these heuristics can be incorporated into decision aids designed to improve the quality of access to the information contained within the decision maker's semantic memory. Candidate heuristics for use in development of such decision aids are identified, and criteria for locating the site of operation of heuristics are reported in the literature. Selection of those heuristics that operate on the interface with semantic memory is developed. These heuristics are identified within a comprehensive table of heuristics cited in the literature. (Author)