Test and Evaluation of an Operationally Capable Synoptic Upper-Ocean Forecast System

摘要

This paper was prepared for the Ocean Prediction Workshop held at the Naval Postgraduate School, 29 April through 2 May 1981. It describes the first generation of operationally capable synoptic upper-ocean forecast models implemented at Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center via the Thermodynamical Ocean Prediction System (TOPS), and discusses potential uses for their output products. Several examples of one-dimensional verification of the turbulence parameterization scheme currently used in TOPS are presented and discussed. In addition, formalism for large-scale synoptic verification of short-term ocean thermal predictions is developed and applied to a test and evaluation of TOPS that was carried out using operational data from the fall of 1980. Results from this 45-day testing period indicate that TOPS can routinely forecast large-scale sea surface temperature changes over periods of several days with a useful level of skill. This marks the practical beginning of operational synoptic ocean prediction. (Author)