Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East: Implications for the Superpowers

摘要

The diffusion of nuclear technology in the Third World and the possibility of nuclear weapons proliferation comprise one of the most acute security concerns confronting the US and its allies. Nowhere are the implications for world peace more precarious than in the volatile Middle East. In contrast to the US-Soviet political environment which a nuclear 'code of conduct' has developed, no such code of behavior exists in the Arab-Israeli milieu. A potential nuclear scenario thereby looms in large in any renewed significant conflict in the Middle East, with the consequent implications for catastrophe in the area, as well as for superpower confrontation. The political, military, and economic incentives which might impel a state to 'go nuclear' clearly obtain for Israel and its primary Arab antagonists. Israel appears on virtually every list of would-be proliferators, while politico-military incentives and the requisite economic capabilities for obtaining a nuclear capability are undeniably present in several Arab states.