Strategy Selection for the Production Phase of Weapon System Acquisition

摘要

Selecting an acquisition strategy for the production phase of weapon system acquisition is an important decision. This report proposes a structured approach for analyzing the problem by explicitly considering all the major parts of the decision environment: potential strategies, objectives, and system specific conditions. Both new data on non-cost aspects of the decision and a general cost model are presented. The empirical research on non-cost issues, specifically reliability and schedule, was limited by the few qualifying systems with auditable records. Tentative conclusions were that (1) given government monitoring the reliability objective should typically be given little weight in the strategy decision and (2) second sources do experience initial schedule delays of greater magnitudes than the developer. The study presents an approach to analyzing the strategy selection problem. A screening technique is used to focus the detailed analysis on the viable strategies. The cost model integrates inputs from the areas of methodology, historical data, and judgment. It is shown that a stochastic network can be used to represent the dynamics of the acquisition process. The study recommends the cost-saving behavior of multi-year contracts be investigated. (Author)