M55 Rocket Disposal Program Study. M55-CD-04. Probabilistic Analysis of Chemical Agent Release during Transport of M55 Rockets

摘要

This report presents the results of a probabilistic anlaysis of the release of chemical agent from M-55 rockets as a consequence of an accident during transport. The M-55 rocket inventories stored at the Anniston Army Depot (AAD) Alabama; the Lexington-Blue Grass Depot Activity (LB/DA), Kentucky; and the Umatilla Depot Activity Oregon; are considered for transport by: (1) highway, rail or air to the tooele Army Depot, Utah; and (2) air to the Johnston Island A.F.B. in the South Pacific. For those munitions stored at the AAD and the LB/DA, transport by highway, rail, or air to the Pine Bluff Arsenal, Arkansas, are also considered. Two types of packaging are considered: a simple vapor-barrier package and an armored and insulated package called the Chemical Ammunition Package Transporter (CAMPACT). Five agent release categories were defined: accident damage to the shipping container of a 'Leaker' causing simple, unconfined agent release; simple agent release for a normal rocket; impact-induced rocket motor ignition; impact-induced burster detonation; and fire induced release. These five categories were combined for comparisons with other studies: a simple release category and a maximum credible release category. The transport mode with the lowest probability of an accident causing either category of release of agent is rail. For some specific routes using the CAMPACT, truck may be favored. A qualitative sabotage analysis indicates that rail may offer the lowest exposure to sabotage.