King and the Shah: Modernization, Dependence and Regime Stability

摘要

Critics of America's support for conservative monarchs in the Middle East have pointed out disturbing parallels between the current situation in Morocco and conditions that existed in Iran prior to the fall of the shah. The purpose of this thesis is to assess the validity of such comparisons. The author analyses the forces leading to revolution in Iran in terms of five categories: domestic, Islamic, leasdership, economic and foreign. The stability of the Moroccan regime is then assesses using these categories as a guide. Because of its clear bearing on future developments in the country, Morocco's war in the Western Sahara is also discussed even though it falls outside of the categories drawn from the Iranian experience. The author concludes that, although it is impossible to rule out an assassin's bullet or a military coup, and indigenous mass uprising comparable to that which led to the fall of the shah does not appear imminent in Morocco. The king's stability is based on several factors absent in the Iranian case, including his wider power base, his role as an Islamic leader, the historic identification of his crown with nationalism, increased opportunities for political participation, restrained foreign associations and, most importantly, superior royal leadership. (Thesis)