Accuracy and Operational Use of Medium and Extended Range Numerical Atmospheric Forecasts: A Review

摘要

The potential benefits of medium range (5-10 day) and extended range (10-15 day) atmospheric forecasts in support of the U.S. Navy are assessed. The present and likely near-future state of the art of medium range and extended range forecasting are surveyed, summarized, and related to specific operational requirements and applications of such forecasts. Conclusions regarding the required skill for longer-range forecasts are provided, Several issues relating to forecast system at a central site, and to presentation, distribution and use of products, are presented. (Author)