Analysis of Soviet Military Writing on United States Reentry Vehicle Technology, 1965-1983.

摘要

This report reviews Soviet military writing on U.S. reentry vehicle technology and analyzes this literature in light of what it reveals concerning the Soviet military's technology assessment process. A review of over 40 Soviet military books and journal articles produced the following conclusions: (1) The military's assessments consistently -- over various technology areas and over the course of 20 years -- focused on explaining how a given RV technology worked. (2) A direct correlation existed between the Soviet military's threat perception regarding a given RV technology and how extensively that technology was assessed. (3) Assessments of U.S. reentry vehicle inertial guidance technology were anomalous. (4) Assessments correlated well with the actual state of U.S. RV programs -- Changes in the direction of these programs were accurately portrayed in the Soviet military literature. (5) The quality and technical proficiency of the assessments improved considerably over time. (6) The technology assessment process, however, changed little over the 20 year course of this study -- The process has been and remains oriented to providing the Soviet military with the information needed to minimize its response time to U.S. reentry vehicle technological innovation. The great majority of Soviet military writing on any particular U.S. RV technology attempted to explain how that technology worked. Surprisingly few sought to analyze in any detail the military significance of the various technological innovations. (EDC)