Effect of Outcome Desirability on Comparisons of Numerical and Linguistic Probabilities.

摘要

This thesis examines the observed phenomenon that when subjects have complete knowledge of a probability distribution, subjective estimates are found to be biased as a function of outcome desirability. The thesis extends that finding to situations in which subjects' know the probabilities based only on linguistic expressions. It was found that subjects' comparisons of numerical and linguistic probabilities were biased in various degrees toward the more desirable outcome, based on the particular phrase under consideration. Keywords: Probability expressions; Mathematical models; Subjective probability; Theses. (CP)