Problem Formulation and Alternative Generation in the Decision Making Process.

摘要

Classical and neoclassical economic theory, as well as statistical design theory, through their neglect of human bounded rationality -- the vast disparity between human computing capabilities and the complexity of our world -- both give a seriously distorted picture of human decision making and omit at least three components of the decision making process that are of central importance. In this paper, I will outline what is known, today, about these neglected aspects of human decision-making. A great deal is known, mainly as a result of the progress of cognitive science in the last generation. Economics can make rapid progress by drawing upon this storehouse of new knowledge to reconstruct and expand its foundations. Keywords: Cognitive psychology; Economics; Decision making; Subjective expected utility; Problem formation; G operations research. (JG)