Experts' Opinions on the Reliability Gap and Some Practical Guidelines on Reliability Growth

摘要

Over the years, the reliability of fielded weapon systems has consistently been less that what was predicted. In the area of avionics equipment, the reliability gap between predicted mean-time-between-failures (MTBFs) and field MTBFs was reported to range from 7:1 to 20:1 (38:231). The inability to accurately relate factory (whether specified, required, or demonstrated) reliability to the field reliability of weapon systems/subsystems has a significant impact on operational readiness and life cycle costs. To study the reliability gap between factory and field reliability, this research is divided into three distinct phases, with the following objectives: 1. To examine the existence of the reliability gap in airborne tactical radars. 2. To identify and analyze the major contributors to the reliability gap. Specifically, to identify the most significant contributors. 3. To explore practical guidelines on how to minimize the reliability gap. Specifically, to identify some practical guidelines on reliability growth. To examine the existence of the reliability gap, this thesis obtained the data from NAVAIR and examined the radars on Air Force and Navy aircraft. Using experts'/practitioners' (DoD & Industry) opinions, contributors to practical guidelines on reliability growth management were also indentified. Theses. (sdw)