Of Smoke and Mirrors: Grand Strategy by Commission

摘要

Few enterprises are as demanding as that of attempting to craft an appropriate strategy for a power such as the United States in an ever more complicated world. Earlier endeavors include the classic NSC-68 written in 1950 and the so-called 'Nixon Doctrine' prepared two decades later. The most recent attempt is 'Discriminate Deterrence: Report of the Commission on Integrated Long-Range Strategy' (January 1988), compiled under the auspices of a prestigious commission co-chaired by Fred C. Ikle and Albert Wohlstetter. The objective of 'Discriminate Deterrence' is to devise an integrated strategy 'designed for the long term, to guide force development, weapons procurement, and arms negotiations.' How well it has done in its pursuit of that objective, and why, is the subject of this review. The report consists of a summary and eight substantive chapters, with a dozen working papers and topical reports to be published separately. The chapter titles themselves provide an indication of the scope of this effort: 'The Changing Security Environment,' 'Third World Conflicts and U.S. Interests,' 'Wars on the Soviet Periphery,' 'The Extreme Threats,' 'Influencing Soviet Arms Policy,' 'Managing Technology,' 'Managing the Defense Budget,' and 'Connecting the Elements of the Strategy.' Each chapter undertakes to identify relevant issues, assess the prevailing state of affairs, and then prescribe how the subject of that chapter should be handled by the United States in the years to come. The result 'is meant to guide our defense planning for many years into the future -- at least twenty.'.