Single-Station Forecasting Model.

摘要

This report describes the development of an advanced prototype expert system, named Itasca, for the classical single-station weather forecasting problem. The forecasting skills necessary to produce forecasts from limited data are being lost though they continue to have application to certain military scenarios which include communications interruptions. Itasca is intended for use at an arbitrary mid-latitude station, and utilizes physical relationships between the synoptic weather and variables that affect the local weather rather than station specific rules. Itasca is designed as an imbedded expert system where the user has control over the operation of the system through a user interface. Rule bases are loaded and used as appropriate to the task at hand. The rule bases and the class/object structure used in the expert system were developed using the NEXPERT-object development system. Testing of the system during development was limited by the lack of suitable datasets, but a plan is in place for further independent testing and evaluation. Weather Forecasting, Single-Station Forecasting, Expert System, Artificial Intelligence.