Prepare to be Wrong: Assessing and Designing for Adaptability, Flexibility, and Responsiveness.

摘要

Future operational and fiscal uncertainty is forcing difficult investment decisions by senior defense officials. History tells us that forecasts regarding uncertain futures are frequently wrong, often resulting in choices that have severe consequences. In order to avoid such consequences, the Department of Defense must prepare to be wrong. Recent defense strategic guidance argues for an adaptable, flexible force to be prepared for future uncertainties. To support this imperative, this paper offers a framework and methodologies for assessing adaptability in existing weapon systems and designing it into future systems.