Preventing a Sixth Twentieth-Century Balkan War

摘要

Although the Southern Balkan situation appears stable, two developments could ignite the sixth Balkan War of the century. The first is in the political-ethnic situation in Kosovo. Belgrade continues repressive policies against Kosovars and has recently tightened control over humanitarian relief. Consequently, moderate Kosovar leader Rugova is under pressure from radicals within his own party. The second development is the economic crisis in Macedonia. The effects of the embargo on Serbia and a Greek embargo on Macedonia are catastrophic. Because approximately 25% of Skopje's wage earners have not been paid in the past five months, major labor demonstrations could occur this autumn. A more aggressive policy of preventive diplomacy with much greater EU participation is needed.