Regression Model for the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone IntensityForecast

摘要

Tropical cyclone forecasting is an important but difficult task. The term'intensity' refers to the maximum surface or low-level wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone. A regression model for forecasting this wind intensity in the western North Pacific was derived by using the 19-year (1971-89) post-determined best-track data, which include the date, time and location of the tropical cyclone's circulation (cyclonic) center, and the estimated maximum sustained surface wind speed (one-minute average at 10-meter elevation). This model provides intensity forecasts out to 72 hours for 12-hour intervals, and is designed for the intensity of all classes of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. To establish characteristics of this regression model, intensity forecasts from the model are compared with official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at Guam and with forecasts from a persistence method, for the year 1990, in terms of relative statistics.