Schedule-Assessment Methods for Surface-Launched Interceptors

摘要

The research documented in this report was initiated to provide representativesof the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) with methods for assessing the reasonableness of proposed acquisition schedules for surface-based interceptor elements of proposed missile defense architectures. Such methods should reproduce schedules typical of analogous historic systems while accounting for schedule variations associated with differing technical or program characteristics. IDA collected historical schedule and technical data on 22 surface-launched interceptor programs and other relevant missile programs. Historical missile acquisition program schedules and related data are presented in consistent formats for use in data analyses and for comparison with proposed acquisition programs. We performed statistical analyses on schedule intervals in the data to derive time-estimating relationships (TERS). The TERs were integrated into a schedule-assessment tool that spans the period from the start of pre-engineering and manufacturing development prototype efforts through early production. In applying statistical analyses, we treated schedule intervals (measured in months) as dependent variables and regressed them against independent variables that were thought to influence these intervals. We used both conventional least-squares regression as well a more novel frontier function approach. (MM).