Cuba: A Strategic Analysis and its Implications on Military Planning

摘要

The study examines the social, political, economic, and military aspects ofCuba's national power in order to define the parameters that will govern the application of U.S. military power in a Cuban contingency. The essence of a strategic assessment of Cuba comprises two phenomena. One is the diffusion of political power. The ruling elite is finding it increasingly difficult to control events to the extent that they once did. Power is shifting downward, being diffused to the other generational factions, the military, the church, and slowly, incrementally, to the people themselves. The second phenomenon is the acceleration of change throughout the country, driven primarily by the deterioration of the economy. As a result, the regime's traditional sources of legitimacy are disappearing. Unless the regime can revitalize the Cuban economy (which is doubtful), the prospect for a chaotic power succession is probable. The study concludes that actions taken now, prior to the occurrence of convulsive violence, could allow the achievement of our political strategy without an armed intervention.The paper forwards the idea that the proactive development of a truly overarching grand strategy, military to military contacts, and the institution of an informational program, designed to allay historical fears, will significantly aid in the achievement of that goal. The organization and training of an Inter-American force should occur concurrently should intervention become unavoidable. Additionally, a new theater strategic concept should be considered. One that is focused on how best to shape change and achieve the fundamental goal of a peaceful, democratic, and prosperous Cuba.