An investigation into factors affecting the intergenerational transfer in agriculture: a probit model application.

摘要

The typical succession pattern from father to son that has characterized the agricultural sector seems disrupted. The purpose of this study is to understand the causes of the exit by young adults from the sector, in order to give scientific support to policy makers. A formal economic model of succession that could serve as an adequate basis for testable predictions is not available. In the absence of such a model, the present study examines intergenerational transfer in the context of migration between rural and urban areas and "succession theories". Drawing from these theories, a number of factors that are hypothesized to influence the decision of the children to take over the family farm are used as explanatory variables in a probit model. The econometric model utilized aims to identify the social, economic and structural factors determining the generational turnover in three Italian provinces: Latina, Frosinone, Napoli. In contrast to previous studies on succession that are based on the farm operator's opinion on their children's plans, the present study investigates the actual decision of the children. The findings of this study lend strong support for the selectivity hypothesis: low incomes are negatively related with the propensity to stay in the sector. The results indicate that the more professional and competitive farms are likely to have a generational turnover. The results show that the exit of young adults could be related to low earnings and also to individual preferences. The propensity to leave the farm sector is sensitive to the level of education attained, to the level of exposure to information, and to the cultural interests of the youth. Intergenerational transfer seems to be the result of an involvement in the farm activity and the availability of the house could be part of this process.