A Bayesian Integration of Volumetric and MaterialBalance Analyses to Quantify Uncertainty inOriginal Hydrocarbons in Place

摘要

The authors use a Bayesian formulation to integrate volumetric and material balance analyses. Specifically, they apply Bayes's rule to the Havlena and Odeh material balance equation to estimate original oil in place, N, and relative gas-cap size, m, for a gas-cap drive oil reservoir. The authors consider uncertainty and correlation in the volumetric estimates of N and m, as well as uncertainty in the pressure data. They then quantify uncertainty in the estimates of N and m resulting from the combined volumetric and material balance analyses. By combining the analyses, each reduces the uncertainty of the other, resulting in more accurate in-place estimates than from the separate analyses.