Comfortable Opec Set For Short Meeting

摘要

Oil markets are nowhere near as tight as Opec was predicting at its last meeting back in May, but prices of $65-$70 per barrel are close to the $75/bbl target that Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi had in mind. The comfort of that price, which has been buoyed up by a wave of economic optimism, will allow Opec to put off efforts to improve compliance and have a short, quiet meeting when ministers gather in Vienna on Sep. 9 (PIW, Jun.l,pl). As in May, the price is benefiting from financial markets' treatment of oil futures as a "macro trade," responding to shifts in equities markets and the value of the dollar. Most analysts agree that on the basis of physical market fundamentals alone, oil prices should not be trading at these levels. But the inflow of capital is insulating the oil price from still-weak fundamentals, and Opec from the need to intensify its output-cutting efforts.