Stockbuilds Could Return to Opec's Radar

摘要

Global oil inventories saw another large build in May as OECD forward cover rose to a whopping 61 days, a level that would normally cause Opec some concern. The producer group has previously targeted OECD stocks of around 53 days of forward cover, but the only way they'll ease to anywhere near that level is for second-half demand to come in much stronger than expected or for Opec to successfully crack down on its cheaters — neither of which seems very likely (PIW May31,p1). Combined end-May OECD commercial stocks of crude and products were up slightly more than 1 million barrels per day to 2.75 billion bbl, according to PIW sister publication Oil Market Intelligence, with an impressive 1.7 million b/d build pushing global commercial stocks to 5.36 billion bbl compared to 5.25 billion bbl at the same time in 2009. Within this, North America and Pacific stocks saw builds, while Europe had a slight draw. North American gains were mostly in middle distillates — diesel and heating oil — and in "other" fuels.