LNG Exporters Face Worsening Price Outlook

摘要

When US LNG pioneer Cheniere took a final investment decision (FID) on the first liquefaction train at its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana in 2012, spot LNG prices in its prime target market, Northeast Asia, were hovering around $14 per million Btu. Today, with its first export cargo heading not for Asia or even Europe but for Brazil, Asian spot prices are nearly 70% lower at around $4.35/MMBtu. But for Cheniere and its fellow LNG exporters in the US and elsewhere, the problem of where prices are now is becoming overshadowed by the question of where prices are headed in the months and years ahead (PIW Feb.29’16). Spot prices are now around $4.25-$4.35/MMBtu in both Asia and Europe-European prices have also slumped by almost 50% since 2012-and are prompting a major rethink by forecasters. Investment bank Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its multiyear spot price projections by over 10%, and now expects Asian spot prices to average $5.17/MMBtu this year, $4.63/MMBtu in 2017 and $4.25/MMBtu in 2018, and European prices to average $4.39/MMBtu in 2016, $4.25/MMBtu next year and $4/MMBtu in 2018. In Europe, however, traders are more pessimistic still, believing prices will sink further, especially heading into the summer. “While Asia might hover just above that mark, European sellers will need to go below $4/MMBtu, purely to shift volumes,” one trader said.