Opec's attempt at market mood management worked a treat earlier this year - despite still-sloppy fundamentals, talk of a production "freeze" stopped prices falling further into the $20s and sparked a four-month rally that took oil above $50 per barrel, even after the collapse of the actual freeze deal at April's chaotic producer meeting in Doha. So with bearish sentiment reasserting itself and oil this month back at $40/bbl, Opec apparently decided to have another go, with talk from Opec and Saudi Arabian officials of new producer talks in September helping push prices close to $46/bbl last week. The question is whether this is mere chatter, or whether an output freeze is feasible this time - and here there are some positive pointers, but still some very big obstacles (p8). Opec said last week that it plans to meet "informally" on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum meeting of 73 producer and consumer nations in Algeria Sep. 26-28, while Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said this would be an opportunity for talks with non-Opec producers to discuss the market situation "including any possible action that may be required to stabilize the market." But after the farce in Doha - prompted by a last-minute Saudi about-face - there are natural suspicions that all this is no more than a "messaging" play (PIW Apr.25'16).
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