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首页> 外文期刊>Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences >An empirical analysis of factors affecting food (wheat) inflation in Pakistan.
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An empirical analysis of factors affecting food (wheat) inflation in Pakistan.

机译:对巴基斯坦粮食(小麦)通胀影响因素的实证分析。

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This paper attempted to analyze the factors affecting food (wheat) inflation in Pakistan by using the annual data of time period 1981-2010. Johanson's Co-integration technique and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were used to check the long run and short run relationship among the variables. Results indicated that in the long run, per capita income had positive and statistically significant effect, while crude oil price had positive but statistically insignificant effect. In contrast, money supply and wheat support price had negative effect on food prices. In case of short run, lag value of food prices had positive, while money supply and wheat support price had negative effect. Although, crude oil prices and per capita income had positive effects yet these were statistically insignificant. To control food prices, it was suggested that food production may be encouraged by increasing wheat support prices. Moreover, Government may regulate prices of crude oil and input markets along with raising investment in agriculture sector.
机译:本文试图利用1981-2010年期间的年度数据来分析影响巴基斯坦粮食(小麦)通货膨胀的因素。使用Johanson的协整技术和矢量误差校正模型(VECM)来检查变量之间的长期和短期关系。结果表明,从长远来看,人均收入具有正向和统计学意义,而原油价格具有正向但统计学意义不明显。相反,货币供应和小麦支持价格对粮食价格产生负面影响。在短期情况下,粮食价格的滞后价值为正,而货币供应和小麦支持价格则为负。尽管原油价格和人均收入产生了积极影响,但在统计上这些影响并不明显。为了控制粮食价格,有人建议通过提高小麦支持价格来鼓励粮食生产。此外,政府可能会在提高对农业部门的投资的同时,对原油和原料市场的价格进行监管。

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