How to live in a textile quota-free world

摘要

Textile and clothing are the leading industrial sector of Pakistan. It has backward linkages with the agricultural sector, has the largest share in manufacturing, and has forward linkages with export-oriented enterprises. The present study focuses on the likely winners and losers in a textile quota-free world of the year 2005. Our main interest here is Pakistan and the countries in close geographical proximity with Pakistan, like India, Bangladesh, and China (excluding Hong Kong). The questions toanswer are: Are there gains for these countries only or is there a likelihood of any losses in export-oriented income? And how well-prepared are these economies in an open era? The study analyses the textile sector of Pakistan, its chief characteristics,strengths, and weaknesses, and looks at the export structure of Pakistani textiles. It further looks at the textile industries and tries to discover their preparedness for the quota-free world of the closest geographical competitors of Pakistan: Bangladesh, India, and China. Pakistan's competitiveness is analysed too in the context of government efforts and the newly-drafted Textile Vision 2005 document. It probes the assumptions and likely targets that are set by the Ministry of Commerce for modernising textile industry. The unrealistic assumptions and illogical targets are questioned here. It is concluded finally that to see the position of Pakistan in the textile quota-free world in a realistic manner, besides the statistical projections, it is necessary to transform an obsolete, dependent, and low value-added sector into a modem and competitive sector for the post-quota-free world.