Spatial modelling of road network development, population pressure and biophysical properties of upland crop and forest conversions in Lop Buri province, Thailand, 1989-2006

摘要

Over the past few decades, land use and land cover change has become a global concern. In the Lop Buri province of Thailand, rapid land cover change, specifically conversion of forests to agriculture, has occurred. The purpose of the study is to identify the predictors of land cover change in Lop Buri province for land that has been converted to upland crops or has undergone deforestation between 1989 and 2006. Four logistic regression models were constructed using spatially explicit biophysical and geo-social data, to account for changes to upland crops and forest loss from1989-98 and 1998-2006. Across the four models, slope, distance to forest edge, distance to towns, distance to roads, population size, and population density in various stand-alone and interactive forms were found to be the most consistent predictors of land cover change.