Tankers On The Tightrope - They Keep Falling Off!

摘要

You may have noticed that tanker rates are a bit shaky. Gulf East has slipped below WS 100, and the prospect of OPEC cuts and refinery turnarounds is "preying on owners' minds". Anyway after three spikes in a row, it's hard to believe that earnings of over dollar 50,000/day can last for-' ever! For all their optimism, most tanker owners have a "black dog" lurking somewhere in their minds. But despite these gloomy thoughts (and we have a few ourselves) it's hard to feel too uncomfortable with the fundamentals this year. One positive trend is that oil demand forecasts are being revised up, For example in February 2003 the IEA predicted world oil demand would grow 1.1m b/d in 2003. Their latest estimate of actual oil demand in 2003 is 1.59m b/d. an increase of 45 percent! (That's demand for 15 extra VLCCs if the increase is long haul).